"Sooner or later there will be a recession" and there are doubts whether Portugal is prepared. There is a budget surplus but "the sheet is fully stretched"

The Public Finance Council (CFP) warns that while the state budget projects a 0.1% surplus for 2027, the central government's deficit is projected to reach 2.8% of GDP. This surplus is heavily dependent on the social security sector, which is vulnerable to economic cycles and potential shifts in employment.