Inflation: For the government's forecast to materialize, oil prices would need to drop 20%, warns CFP

The Public Finance Council (CFP) warns that the government's 2027 State Budget macroeconomic scenario may underestimate inflation and overstate growth, employment, and wage increases. The CFP projects an average annual inflation rate of 3.2% for 2026, above the government's 2.9% forecast, noting that achieving the official figure would require a cumulative drop of over 20% in the price of crude oil—an outcome incompatible with the Ministry of Finance's own assumptions.