The government predicts a 26% decline in capital invested in Treasury Certificates (CT) by 2027, despite the launch of a new, more generous version of the product in July. This forecast suggests that the new CT series is failing to attract small savers, who continue to prefer Savings Certificates (Certificados de Aforro).
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Total investment in savings certificates reached 45.391 billion euros at the end of September, marking the 24th consecutive monthly increase and a 16.3% year-on-year rise according to Bank of Portugal data. Meanwhile, investment in treasury certificates fell to 6.331 billion euros, down 24.3% from the previous year.
The government raised the 2026 emission limit for Certificates of Aforro and Treasury from 10 billion to 16 billion euros. Published in the Diário da República on Friday, 23 October 2026, the order by Minister of Finance Joaquim Miranda Sarmento follows private demand significantly exceeding forecasts. Limits on other public debt instruments were adjusted, while Treasury bond and bill emission caps were lowered.
The government's 2027 State Budget proposal forecasts that total investment in Portugal will continue to grow, pushing GDP up by over 2%, despite a significant decline in public investment following the end of the PRR (Recovery and Resilience Plan). Economists and the president of the Confederation of Portuguese Industry (CIP) express skepticism, warning that private investment may not compensate for the loss, potentially leading to a decline in total investment next year.